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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 89

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to SF 38, Center-41-C.Stoll. 3-R.McCloud to SF 42 for 4 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.80 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP