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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to SEA 2, impetus ends at SEA 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.61 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model