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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 10 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model