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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Monday 2023-11-27 · 20:15 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CHI
41.5%
MIN
58.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Joshua Dobbs (MIN) -0.106 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.155 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CHI

Noah Sewell LB Out Knee
Larry Borom T Doubtful Illness
D'Onta Foreman RB Doubtful Ankle
Tyrique Stevenson CB Questionable Ankle

MIN

Akayleb Evans CB Questionable Calf
Justin Jefferson WR Questionable Hamstring
Khyiris Tonga DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 12
–
MIN 10

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:37 FG CHI (13:37) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI-76-T.Jenkins was injured during the play. CHI 3 – MIN 0
  • Q2 00:04 FG MIN (:04) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. CHI 3 – MIN 3
  • Q3 07:03 FG CHI (7:03) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 6 – MIN 3
  • Q4 14:20 FG CHI (14:20) 8-C.Santos 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 9 – MIN 3
  • Q4 05:58 TD MIN (5:58) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass deep middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – MIN 9
  • Q4 00:13 FG CHI (:13) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 12 – MIN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 81%

    (5:57) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:20) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to CHI 26, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 26 for no gain (11-N.Thompson).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 65%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 85-C.Kmet to MIN 14 for 24 yards (25-Th.Jackson).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (13:37) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI-76-T.Jenkins was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:38) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 4-B.Powell. Penalty on MIN-91-P.Jones, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%

    (5:19) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to MIN 16, Center-48-P.Scales. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 31 for 15 yards (35-K.Blasingame).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:37) 14-R.Wright punts 47 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:00) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (:04) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 33%

    (12:13) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson pushed ob at CHI 45 for 6 yards (6-K.Gordon).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 92%

    (7:03) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 50%

    (2:46) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass short middle intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards (33-J.Johnson) at CHI 31. 53-T.Edwards to CHI 31 for no gain (17-K.Osborn).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 68%

    (14:20) 8-C.Santos 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 40%

    (2:36) 14-R.Wright punts 26 yards to CHI 22, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (:13) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.