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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 14-R.Wright punts 26 yards to CHI 22, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.26 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model