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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 14-R.Wright punts 47 yards to CHI 18, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.01 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model