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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 53

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to MIN 16, Center-48-P.Scales. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 31 for 15 yards (35-K.Blasingame).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.99 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -3.12 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model