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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 37

Chicago Bears 6 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 8-C.Santos 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model