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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 56

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.44 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model