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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 38

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 85-C.Kmet to MIN 14 for 24 yards (25-Th.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -2.27 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP