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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 30

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.67 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model