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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 21

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.77 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP