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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NO
47.3%
MIN
52.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NO: Joshua Dobbs (MIN) -0.159 vs Derek Carr (NO) -0.028 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Joshua Dobbs in place of Jaren Hall)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: -0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 22
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NO

Isaiah Foskey DE Out Quadricep
Kendre Miller RB Out Ankle
Adam Prentice FB Questionable Knee

MIN

Jaren Hall QB Out Concussion
Dean Lowry DE Doubtful Groin
K.J. Osborn WR Questionable Concussion
Chris Reed G Questionable Foot
Brian Asamoah LB Questionable Ankle
T.J. Hockenson TE Questionable Ribs
Justin Jefferson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 19
–
MIN 27

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:52 FG MIN (10:52) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. NO 0 – MIN 3
  • Q1 01:23 FG NO (1:23) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 3 – MIN 3
  • Q2 10:17 TD MIN (10:17) Direct snap to 32-T.Chandler. 32-T.Chandler left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – MIN 9
  • Q2 03:40 TD MIN (3:40) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – MIN 16
  • Q2 00:22 TD MIN (:22) (Shotgun) 15-J.Dobbs pass deep middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – MIN 23
  • Q3 10:13 FG MIN (10:13) 1-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. NO 3 – MIN 27
  • Q3 05:31 TD NO (5:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Olave for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – MIN 27
  • Q4 11:48 TD NO (11:48) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short right to 17-A.Perry for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 17 – MIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 91%

    (10:52) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 43%

    (7:51) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:24) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to NO 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 17 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 81%

    (1:23) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:18) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to MIN 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:53) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to MIN 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:03) 39-L.Hedley punts 44 yards to MIN 26, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 4-B.Powell. PENALTY on NO-49-Z.Wood, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 26.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (10:13) 1-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 70%

    (6:33) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to MIN 34 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:06) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to NO 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:46) 39-L.Hedley punts 46 yards to MIN 38, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 47 for 9 yards (52-D.Jackson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 70%

    (15:00) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 53%

    (13:21) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Olave to MIN 17 for 26 yards (7-B.Murphy).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 16 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 50%

    (8:34) 14-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NO 7, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:25) 39-L.Hedley punts 46 yards to MIN 44, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 47 for 3 yards (45-N.Sewell).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:01) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NO 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:15) 14-R.Wright punts 45 yards to NO 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 49 for 10 yards (11-N.Thompson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (:15) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NO 40, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at MIN 48 for 12 yards (44-J.Metellus).