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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 11 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 39-L.Hedley punts 46 yards to MIN 38, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 47 for 9 yards (52-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.87 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model