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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 11 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(13:21) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Olave to MIN 17 for 26 yards (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.00 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model