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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 24 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 1-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model