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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 27 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 14-R.Wright punts 45 yards to NO 39, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 49 for 10 yards (11-N.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 84, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 42, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model