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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 22

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.06 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model