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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 19 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 39-L.Hedley punts 46 yards to MIN 44, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 47 for 3 yards (45-N.Sewell).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.71 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 90, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model