4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to MIN 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP