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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.84 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model