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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2023-11-05 · 16:25 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

DAL
40.5%
PHI
59.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.114 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: -0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23
–
PHI 25
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DAL

Chuma Edoga T Questionable Ankle
Tyron Smith T Questionable Neck

PHI

Bradley Roby CB Out Shoulder
Boston Scott RB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Grant Calcaterra TE Out Concussion
Cam Jurgens G Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 23
–
PHI 28

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:52 TD PHI (5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 01:41 TD DAL (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – PHI 7
  • Q2 11:21 TD DAL (11:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 9-K.Turpin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DAL 13 – PHI 7
  • Q2 05:13 TD PHI (5:13) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – PHI 13
  • Q2 01:20 FG DAL (1:20) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 17 – PHI 14
  • Q3 11:30 TD PHI (11:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – PHI 20
  • Q3 01:18 TD PHI (1:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – PHI 27
  • Q4 06:30 TD DAL (6:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 18-J.Tolbert for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 23 – PHI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:47) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to PHI 19, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-B.Covey to PHI 23 for 4 yards (40-H.Luepke; 24-I.Mukuamu).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:30) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 34 for 2 yards (33-D.Clark).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 84%

    (6:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at DAL 12 for 15 yards.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 73%

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 4 for 29 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:17) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to DAL 17, Center-45-R.Lovato. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 29 for 12 yards (48-P.Johnson). DAL-9-K.Turpin was injured during the play. PENALTY on DAL-84-S.McKeon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 28.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 28%

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to PHI 40 for 11 yards (17-N.Dean; 31-K.Byard).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 73%

    (1:20) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:15) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to DAL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-89-J.Stoll.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 48%

    (7:38) 5-B.Anger punts 30 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%

    (11:55) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to PHI 14 for 1 yard (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on PHI-31-K.Byard, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at PHI 14. Philadelphia challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (10:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-L.Schoonmaker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [41-N.Morrow]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-L.Schoonmaker to PHI 1 for no gain (32-R.Blankenship) [41-N.Morrow].

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:49) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to DAL 48, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-53-C.Elliss.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:52) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to DAL 14, Center-45-R.Lovato. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 26 for 12 yards (28-J.Jobe).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Tolbert (24-J.Bradberry).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:59) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to DAL 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-53-C.Elliss.