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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to PHI 19, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-B.Covey to PHI 23 for 4 yards (40-H.Luepke; 24-I.Mukuamu).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model