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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to DAL 14, Center-45-R.Lovato. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 26 for 12 yards (28-J.Jobe).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model