Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(:17) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to DAL 17, Center-45-R.Lovato. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 29 for 12 yards (48-P.Johnson). DAL-9-K.Turpin was injured during the play. PENALTY on DAL-84-S.McKeon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model