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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 1

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(10:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-L.Schoonmaker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [41-N.Morrow]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-L.Schoonmaker to PHI 1 for no gain (32-R.Blankenship) [41-N.Morrow].

The Three Options

GO +4.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.81 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model