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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to PHI 14 for 1 yard (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on PHI-31-K.Byard, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at PHI 14. Philadelphia challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.97 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model