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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Tolbert (24-J.Bradberry).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP