4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 94

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to DAL 48, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-53-C.Elliss.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.13 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 94, worth -5.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.68 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 52, worth -2.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model