Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.320 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) -0.013 EPA/dropback
- SF offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- CIN offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
- CIN on 8 more days rest than SF
- SF defense: -0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
CIN
SF
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:17 TD CIN (8:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Bosa]. CIN 6 – SF 0
- Q1 03:23 TD SF (3:23) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – SF 6
- Q1 00:01 TD CIN (:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-A.Iosivas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-7-C.Ward, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on SF-99-J.Kinlaw, Defensive Offside, declined. CIN 13 – SF 7
- Q2 02:48 FG SF (2:48) 4-J.Moody 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. CIN 14 – SF 10
- Q3 11:14 FG CIN (11:14) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CIN 17 – SF 10
- Q4 13:08 TD CIN (13:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – SF 10
- Q4 08:18 TD SF (8:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 24 – SF 16
- Q4 02:59 TD CIN (2:59) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 30 – SF 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 63%
(13:01) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 15 for 8 yards (35-K.Sheffield, 89-C.Woerner).
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Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(13:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 62 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-20-A.Thomas.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 14 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 73%
(7:08) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
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Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 93%
(2:48) 4-J.Moody 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 58%
(11:14) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
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Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%
(8:30) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to CIN 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 60%
(6:18) 10-B.Robbins punts 49 yards to SF 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 39%
(13:26) 10-B.Robbins punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 66 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(:19) 10-B.Robbins punts 46 yards to SF 20, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.