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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 10-B.Robbins punts 49 yards to SF 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.10 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP