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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 48

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to CIN 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model