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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 10-B.Robbins punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model