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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 4-J.Moody 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.06 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model