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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model