Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

(13:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 62 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-20-A.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.14 EP
53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model