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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 15 for 8 yards (35-K.Sheffield, 89-C.Woerner).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP