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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.65 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model