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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2023-10-22 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

WAS
49.9%
NYG
50.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Tyrod Taylor (NYG) -0.067 vs Sam Howell (WAS) -0.110 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

WAS 19
–
NYG 20
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

WAS

No players on the report.

NYG

Matt Peart T Out Shoulder
John Michael Schmitz C Out Shoulder
Andrew Thomas T Out Hamstring
Evan Neal T Questionable Ankle
Adoree' Jackson CB Questionable Neck
Daniel Jones QB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 7
–
NYG 14

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:22 TD NYG (14:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 12-D.Waller for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 09:05 TD NYG (9:05) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 26-S.Barkley for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NYG 13
  • Q3 10:25 TD WAS (10:25) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – NYG 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:20) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to WAS 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 31 for 9 yards (47-C.Brown).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:48) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 20-E.Gray MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 14, recovered by NYG-44-N.McCloud at NYG 10. 44-N.McCloud pushed ob at NYG 11 for 1 yard (51-D.Mayo).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 87%

    (8:25) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:32) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NYG 11, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 20-E.Gray.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:19) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to WAS 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 38 for 3 yards (24-D.Belton).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 31%

    (3:59) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to NYG 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 3-S.Shepard.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:46) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NYG 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-23-C.Rodriguez.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to WAS 26, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at WAS 23.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:55) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-S.Shepard to NYG 28 for 5 yards (51-D.Mayo).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 20 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:20) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 34, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-S.Shepard to NYG 39 for 5 yards (47-K.Hudson).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 16 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to WAS 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:08) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 32, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 3-S.Shepard.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:18) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NYG 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-S.Shepard MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 21, RECOVERED by WAS-2-D.Brown at NYG 21.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (11:07) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 1-J.Dotson pushed ob at NYG 4 for 8 yards (29-X.McKinney).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (7:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to WAS 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:38) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:15) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to WAS 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 17 for 4 yards (47-C.Brown).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:33) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NYG 21, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 86-D.Slayton.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:18) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to WAS 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 27 for 7 yards (30-D.Holmes). PENALTY on WAS-26-T.Castro-Fields, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 20.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (13:28) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-L.Williams), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 92%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to NYG 12 for 6 yards (25-D.Banks).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Dotson.