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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 67

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NYG 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-23-C.Rodriguez.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model