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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 55

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 6-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to WAS 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.68 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP