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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 86

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 34, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-S.Shepard to NYG 39 for 5 yards (47-K.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.39 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 86, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model