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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 9

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-L.Williams), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.55 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP