Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 47

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

(3:59) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to NYG 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 3-S.Shepard.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.46 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.89 EP

KICK -1.58 EP

31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
69% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model