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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 80

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to WAS 26, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at WAS 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.46 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model