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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 69

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NYG 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-S.Shepard MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 21, RECOVERED by WAS-2-D.Brown at NYG 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model