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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 7

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.65 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model