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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Thursday 2023-10-05 · 20:15 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CHI
31.6%
WAS
68.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.190 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Sam Howell (WAS) -0.174 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.193 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CHI 18
–
WAS 24
Projected margin: WAS by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CHI

Chase Claypool WR Out not injury related - team decision
Eddie Jackson S Out Foot
Jaylon Johnson CB Out Hamstring
Teven Jenkins T Questionable Calf
Jaquan Brisker S Questionable Hamstring

WAS

Chris Rodriguez RB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 40
–
WAS 20

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:09 TD CHI (12:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 04:20 FG CHI (4:20) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 10 – WAS 0
  • Q2 14:20 TD CHI (14:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Payne]. CHI 16 – WAS 0
  • Q2 08:37 FG WAS (8:37) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. CHI 17 – WAS 3
  • Q2 02:28 FG CHI (2:28) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 20 – WAS 3
  • Q2 00:27 TD CHI (:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 26 – WAS 3
  • Q3 12:06 TD WAS (12:06) 78-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 14-S.Howell pass short right to 82-L.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – WAS 9
  • Q3 03:20 FG WAS (3:20) 6-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. CHI 27 – WAS 14
  • Q4 14:13 FG CHI (14:13) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 30 – WAS 14
  • Q4 10:55 TD WAS (10:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 4-C.Samuel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 30 – WAS 20
  • Q4 04:18 TD CHI (4:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 36 – WAS 20
  • Q4 02:00 FG CHI (2:00) 8-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 40 – WAS 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:02) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to CHI 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 26 for 11 yards (39-J.Reaves). WAS-39-J.Reaves was injured during the play.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.23 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (4:20) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:03) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CHI 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 31 for 6 yards (35-P.Butler).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 75%

    (8:37) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 69%

    (6:09) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields up the middle to WAS 35 for 1 yard (90-M.Sweat; 57-C.Barton).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (2:28) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:45) 16-T.Gill punts 45 yards to WAS 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 83-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 30 for 20 yards (22-E.Hicks).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 20 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (7:49) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to WAS 17, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-31-Ja.Jones.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 96%

    (3:20) 6-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 88%

    (14:13) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (9:20) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to WAS 20, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 15 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (5:14) 6-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 18 at the 83 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 85-C.Turner to WAS 26 for 9 yards (53-T.Edwards, 31-Ja.Jones).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 93%

    (2:00) 8-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.