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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 33

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.29 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model