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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 4 at the 18
Chicago Bears 17 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(2:28) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
The Three Options
GO
+1.43 EP
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
- 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.87 EP
KICK
+1.44 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
